By June Mercer
New York's 18th Congressional District has a Democrat in office with a 14-point margin behind him, more than $2.6 million in the bank, and two of the nation's leading nonpartisan handicappers calling his seat safe. His Republican opponent reached the ballot through a party substitution, has filed two ethics complaints against him, walked out of a debate after five minutes, and has not published fundraising totals that any public source can retrieve. This is what the race looks like two weeks before Election Day.
The Candidates
Pat Ryan is a West Point graduate and Army veteran who served two combat tours in Iraq before entering elected office. He served as Ulster County executive from 2019 through 2022, won a special election to Congress in August 2022, and secured a full term that November. He won re-election in 2024 with 57.2 percent of the vote. He appears on the ballot this year on both the Democratic and Working Families lines.
Jackie Auringer, 29, grew up in Kingston and holds a marketing degree from Florida Gulf Coast University. She works as a project manager and accountant for Urban Precast LLC, a family-run construction business. Her House candidate financial disclosure, filed June 30, 2026, lists a 2025 salary from Urban Precast of $52,040.63 and student-loan liabilities of between $15,001 and $50,000. While living in Florida for work, she founded Palm Beach Conservatives and served as vice president of the Palm Beach Federated Republican Women, according to the New York Post. She appears on the ballot on both the Republican and Conservative lines. Her campaign platform centers on cost of living, the skilled trades and small business, and congressional ethics and accountability. Endorsements include former Gov. George Pataki, announced October 5, 2026, and Rep. Mike Lawler.
How Auringer Got on the Ballot
Auringer was not the Republicans' original candidate. In early 2026, Sharanjit "Sunny" Thind, a Long Island marketing executive, filed petitions to run in NY-18. Those petitions listed a friend's house in LaGrangeville, in Dutchess County, as his address. Thind later quit the race. Republicans substituted Auringer in April 2026. Democrats sued to disqualify her, arguing the original petition was fraudulent. An Albany County judge ruled May 1, 2026, that there was no "fraud or sham" in the petition process and kept the substitution on the ballot.
Auringer filed her FEC statement of candidacy on April 10, 2026.
Where the Race Stands
NY-18 covers all of Orange County plus parts of Dutchess and Ulster counties, including Poughkeepsie, Newburgh, and Kingston. Its Cook Partisan Voting Index is D+2.
Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, having moved it from Likely Democratic in January 2026. Cook's own summary notes that Ryan "won reelection by a 14-point margin, so there's no appetite among Republicans to challenge him this year" - Cook's characterization, not this publication's. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Safe Democratic.
One public poll covers this race: a survey conducted July 26, 2026, by Global Strategy Group, a Democratic-partisan firm, of 500 likely voters. That poll put Ryan at 53 percent and Auringer at 39 percent. Given its partisan sponsorship and the time elapsed since it was conducted, it is the only available data point, not a current snapshot.
The Money
Ryan's fundraising through September 30, 2026, according to Federal Election Commission filings reported by PollingSource: $5,290,715 raised for the cycle, with $2,682,522 cash on hand. He carried approximately $2.5 million in cash on hand as of April 2026 reporting.
Auringer's committee, Jackie Auringer for Congress, has no published cycle fundraising totals in any source the desk could retrieve as of October 17, 2026. That absence, at this point in an election cycle, is itself a fact of the race. No figure will be estimated or projected here; none has been verified.
Outside independent-expenditure spending in NY-18 stands at $937 total.
Ryan's Record
Ryan has cast votes in the current Congress that align with his party and, in some cases, broke with the Trump administration directly.
He voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on both May 22, 2025, and July 3, 2025. He called the bill "a betrayal of my constituents." In October 2026, Ryan co-introduced legislation with the full New York Democratic delegation to reverse what the delegation describes as the OBBB's healthcare cuts and restore coverage the delegation says the law removed from 450,000 New Yorkers. That figure of 450,000 comes from his House office and the delegation, not from an independent source.
He voted against the Laken Riley Act in both of its House forms, on January 7, 2025, and January 22, 2025. He voted against the SAVE Act on April 10, 2025, and against the SAVE America Act on February 11, 2026.
His record is not uniformly in one direction. He voted yes on the Agent Raul Gonzalez Officer Safety Act on February 13, 2025, and yes on the Preventing Violence Against Women by Illegal Aliens Act on January 16, 2025, both described in public records as bipartisan law-enforcement measures.
In April 2026, at a House Armed Services Committee hearing, Ryan confronted then-Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the deaths of six soldiers and called for his resignation. He has publicly called for ending the Iran war, framing it as a Trump-era betrayal of NY-18 voters and a driver of rising gas prices.
Claim vs. Record
Auringer has said Ryan "has been cowed by party bosses instead of standing up for local families." His record on contested votes, as detailed above, tracks with his party. His public breaks have come with the Trump administration, not with Democratic leadership. Her characterization is on the record; the voting record is also on the record.
Ryan's campaign has circulated the claim that Auringer "has been living in Florida the last five years," accompanying that assertion with photographs of Auringer alongside Roger Stone and Matt Gaetz at Mar-a-Lago. Her Florida residence and her leadership roles in Palm Beach Republican organizations are documented. When she relocated to Kingston, and how recently, is not independently established by any source the desk reviewed.
Both campaigns told WAMC in September 2026 that attacks in the race had gone "beyond the pale."
The Complaints and the Debate Walkout
The ethics complaints. On September 22, 2026, Auringer filed a complaint with the House Ethics Committee alleging that Ryan's Washington, D.C., residence functions as his primary residence, despite his receipt of House lodging reimbursements intended for members whose primary residence is outside Washington. The complaint, reported by the Times Union on September 23, asserts he received more than $60,000 in such reimbursements and claims a $12,400 veterans property-tax exemption on his New York residence, and states that his children attend school in Washington. Those figures and the children's enrollment allegation are the complaint's claims. They have not been verified by this publication. The complaint states the children's school enrollment was based on information from "multiple sources," without identifying them. Ryan's campaign called the filing a desperate move by a struggling campaign. His wife works in federal government affairs in Washington. No finding by the House Ethics Committee has been reported.
Auringer also filed a separate complaint with the District of Columbia's Office of the State Superintendent of Education, asking whether anyone claimed D.C. residency to enroll a child tuition-free in D.C. public schools. That complaint has been filed; no agency finding has been reported.
The debate walkout. On Friday, October 16, 2026, Auringer left the debate with Ryan hosted by the Daily Freeman after approximately five minutes. She accused the newspaper of unfairness and Ryan of "authoritarian tactics." Her campaign issued a release the same day titled "Statement from Jackie Auringer on Withdrawal from Daily Freeman Debate."
Social media and family business reporting. In September 2026, Judge Street Journal, a Substack publication, reported that a YouTube account Auringer used as a Kingston High School student contained playlists with racist and homophobic slurs in their titles. Her campaign manager said multiple people had access to the account and did not provide evidence of her age when the playlists were created. This reporting comes from a single outlet and carries that publication's attribution here.
The same Judge Street Journal report cites a 2015 affidavit containing allegations about labor conditions at projects run by businesses operated by her father, Tom Auringer, including racist statements attributed to him by a former employee. Those allegations concern her father. Auringer herself is not accused in them. This publication notes that distinction in every reference to that reporting.
What Remains Unanswered
Four gaps stand out after reviewing the available public record.
Auringer's campaign fundraising totals are unavailable. No cycle figures for Jackie Auringer for Congress appear in any source the desk could access as of October 17. The reason for that gap is not publicly explained.
Neither the House Ethics Committee nor the D.C. Office of the State Superintendent of Education has reported any response to the two complaints Auringer filed. Their status remains: filed, with no agency finding.
Whether Ryan's lodging reimbursements conform to the program's rules as applied to other members has not been examined in any comparative reporting the desk could find. The complaint raised the question; the record does not answer it.
Auringer has not specified in any source reviewed how long she has lived in Kingston since returning from Florida.
Voter Information
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Polls open at 6 AM and close at 9 PM.
Early voting runs from Saturday, October 24, through Sunday, November 1, 2026. Dutchess County voters in NY-18, including those in the City of Poughkeepsie, may use any Dutchess County early voting site.
The registration deadline is Saturday, October 24, 2026. October 24 is also Golden Day: a voter may register and vote on the same day at an early voting site. After October 24, registration is closed.
For full details on locations, hours, and ID requirements, see the RFTUV voting guide at Voting in Dutchess County: The October 24 Deadline and Everything After.
NY-18 is part of the RFTUV Election 2026 series.
